1999). Approach and methodology This paper is largely a review, intended to highlight the biophysical settings and associated physical vulnerabilities that need to be considered in adaptation and sustainable development strategies for tropical and sub-tropical
island communities. We propose a geomorphic classification of island types as a framework for assessing relative exposure to a range of coastal hazards. An exhaustive review of island conditions is beyond the scope of the paper, but we draw examples from our experience on Indian, HDAC activation Pacific, and Atlantic oceanic islands and islands in the Caribbean. We address the science and data constraints for developing robust, island-specific projections of sea-level change. SLR integrates the effects of two major contributions: (1) changing ocean density with warming of the surface mixed layer of the ocean, and (2) addition of water to the ocean basins by melting of land-based ice (Church and White 2006; Cazenave and Llovel 2010). The regional distribution of SLR is determined in part by gravitational effects involving the relative proportions of meltwater from various regions
and distances to source, as well as by large-scale ocean dynamics not considered here. Following Mitrovica et al. (2001) and James et al. (2011), we compute this so-called ‘fingerprinting’ component of future sea-level rise, which contributes to spatial variability. In general,
for tropical islands remote from the poles, the fingerprinting may slightly enhance SLR. We then compute island-specific projections selleck under various special report on emission scenarios (SRES) possible futures (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000; Nicholls et al. 2012) using those projections of global mean SLR from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Meehl et al. 2007). We also consider an example of semi-empirical projections published since the AR4 (e.g., Rahmstorf 2007; Grinsted et al. 2009; Salubrinal in vivo Jevrejeva et al. 2010, 2012). We combine the resulting estimates with measurements of vertical land motion to estimate plausible ranges of future sea levels. We provide estimates for a representative set of 18 widely distributed island sites for which vertical motion is available. These computations are adjusted to 90 years to give the rise in mean sea level from 2010 to 2100. Data on past sea levels are taken from the estimates of global mean sea level (GMSL) by Church et al. (2006) and more recently from satellite altimetry data, both of which are provided on-line by CSIRO (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/index.html). Monthly and annual mean sea levels for island stations are obtained from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) (Woodworth and Player 2003; http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/) and other sources in the Caribbean (Sutherland et al. 2008).